A Very Strange Color Is On The Screen Today
The Q4 Assault Begins!
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Off To A Flying Start
Futures overnight and early this morning are up materially, and crypto is positively pumping. Such early promise can fade through the day of course, but you have to put this up-move in the context of where the indices have been lately. Here's an example using the Nasdaq - all four equity indices have put in a comparable pattern.
Spike And Retest Low, NQ, 26 Sep 2023
So time will tell but our best judgment is that we are early in an uptrend towards year end. The fly in the ointment remains the high level of the 10-year yield. We have been saying for some months in this daily note that we think that both equities and the yield can move up at the same time in the larger degree - we've said the only evidence we have for this is that they have, in fact, been doing so; that remains our view. If the 10-year collapses due to Fed or other macro actions then yes we expect equities to move up; but the 10-year at or around 5% does not, in our view, mean that equities cannot move up.
Below we step through our analysis of the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Bitcoin and Ether. This is for our paying members only. If you'd like to sign up for a paid membership, you can do it right from the button below.