August CPI and Q3 Opex This Week. Probably Nothing.
We walk through how we see the S&P, the Nasdaq, the Dow, the Russell 2000, Bitcoin and Ether heading into the new week.
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Pass The Vomit Bucket
If you want to know what volatility looks like then just watch short-dated Nasdaq options in a week featuring a major macro event - like the August CPI print coming Wednesday this week - and a major options expiry per the Q3 opex event coming Friday. Never a dull moment and never a rested heart-rate either.
Our own method of cooling our jets in staff personal accounts is simple.
We use common stocks and ETFs but not options. The options market is a wonderful source of data about where equities may be headed, but as instruments to buy and sell? No thankyou. Too much risk of ending up with nothing or dust. Common stocks and ETFs? You can always live to fight another day.
Our timeframe for trading is days and weeks; for investing, years and decades.
We are old and cynical. So we never get too excited about anything and in particular we never get FUD’d by the SELL EVERYTHING AND RUN CROWD. We have yet, in fact, to be Burry’d. And if we don’t believe that markets are going to crash, we usually don’t believe they are about to moon either. We have yet, in fact, to be Chamath’d.
Now with that in mind we take a look at our outlooks for the four major US equity indices together with Bitcoin and Ether, for our Premium and Pro members here.
Spoiler alert: we’re bullish.