In Musk We Trust
But Not In The Way You Think
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Now What?
by Alex King
Elon Musk famously noted that, “the most entertaining option is the most likely”. Actually the full quote added, “… but not the option that is necessarily most entertaining for those most affected”. And this is how we view markets most of the time. The most likely outcome is the one which leaves market bigs (1) even larger of wallet and (2) leg-slappingly amused and entertained at the plight of the poors who dared play with securities markets absent a Wall St. business card.
Right now, after a dizzying and much hated rally in 2023 (which will have come as no surprise to you if you were a paying subscriber here!), 2024 is in the green and stonks are charging to the upside. Technically speaking you can draw charts with equal conviction to say that’s it, the top is in, yikes run for cover, or, we’re early in a bull cycle, hold on for dear life.
So.
Now we start to find out whether we are indeed in Late Cycle Capitalism, have put in double-tops on the all-time-highs in the US equity indices, and are going to head slowly towards the Dumpster - or whether we’re early in a new bull cycle and getting ready to hit new highs continuously for a while.
Personally I would be surprised if the answer comes easily. I would be unsurprised if there is some push-pull for awhile to first suck in some of the Mt. Zeus-sized pile of money sat on the sidelines, then take some of it off of people by scaring them back out of the market again, before then another move up.
Allow us to walk you through where we think markets may be headed - we cover the S&P500, the Nasdaq-100, the Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 as always.