DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
Wen Hangover?
Alex here.
The three main equity indices mooned once more on Wednesday and then hit the deck, indicating a potential selloff was en route. Personally I added a little short exposure, as alerted at the time to our paying members by way of our real-time Slack channels in our Inner Circle service.
Come the morning on Thursday, AAPL 0.00%↑ s up, MSFT 0.00%↑ was looking like it could do well, the S&P500 looked like it would be glued to the 4500 zone courtesy of monthly options expiry, and all in all, not much of a day to be running across the road in front of Mack trucks trying to gather short profits. I took short gains on all four indices early in the day - nothing much but free money is free money. The Russell then promptly dumped, of course! I added a little $TNA later in the day as a result.
Looking back after the close, the Russell is beginning to recover from its major acts of self-harm today, and the other indices are in nothingburger territory. But not down in any meaningful way - not the S&P, not the Nasdaq and not the Dow. So whilst one can construct many arguments as to why the Yuge Move in recent days will be sold off and retraced, the fact is that so far that has not happened. And so we keep looking upwards until there is a reason not to.
Below we walk through our latest take on the market.
Let's Get To Work
Paying members, scroll right down for our latest take on markets. As always we look at the 10-year yield, the S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000; we add Bitcoin and Ether futures pricing for good measure.
Note - to open full-page versions of these charts, just click on the chart headings, which are hyperlinks.
US 10-Year Yield
Continues to decline - mood music from the love-fest in China suggests a willing buyer of Treasuries isn't only the Fed.