Opposite Day Or Not?
After a modest CPI print, will large account players now accumulate, or use a retail bull-rush as exit liquidity for those post-January gains?
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
The Only Question Is, What Kind Of Rug Pull Is In The Offing?
One thing you know about securities markets is that they behave according to the whims of large account players, not according to what ‘should’ happen based on Capital Markets 101 as taught in the finest institutions in the land. And to this end the only constant thing about markets is the impending Rug Pull. There is always a rug pull afoot; maybe today, tomorrow or next week, but if there wasn’t one this week you know pressure is building for next week.
The question is, what kind of rug pull? Pressure in the Nasdaq in particular is high. Big Money is up Bigly since the January lows; since Big Money is responsible for rotating capital here and there and dragging markets with it, the Bigs knew that the October lows were the lows and have been accumulating ever since. What now is the best way to unseat retail? To keep pushing the Nasdaq up, sucking in late bulls as exit liquidity for the gains chalked up since January? Or to dump hard in order to scare retail half to death (cue CNBC / Cartoon Network talking heads about why the market is going to zero for some reason or other), the better to accumulate once more at lower prices? Either can hurt the unprepared investor.
Our charts posted daily in this service can help you navigate each of the US equity indices - the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell 2000 - over both the long and short term. They are the same charts we use in staff personal account investing and trading here at Cestrian Capital Research. If you’re a Premium or Pro member here, just scroll down as usual for our take on markets. If you’d like to join up, you can do so right from the link below.
Oh by the way. If you’d like daily insight and commentary on how the equity markets are evolving and how we are playing them in staff personal accounts - with analysis of the US 10-year yield curve, Bitcoin and Ether included to provide further context - then sign up for our fastest-growing service yet, our top-tier Cestrian Inner Circle service. This is starter-priced today and will rise over time for new members as do all our services. You can learn all about Cestrian Inner Circle by clicking this link. (Today we also posted our latest long-term single-stock investment idea).
Now for the markets.