The Rally, Crack'd?
Can The July Highs Hold?
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There Is, Was, And Only Ever Shall Be Green
Around this morning was where folks begin to conclude that Markets Only Go Up. Anyone who is short is now worrying a lot and will likely soon throw in the towel, leading to more buying. Anyone sat in cash is starting to develop FOMO. They will likely join the party soon. More buying. This we think will lead to a local top sometime in the not too distant future. Followed by another selloff, the better to take more money from the normalfolk and hand it over to the barons once more. But not too much money, else the normals will be dissuaded from joining the party at all, and then who will be the prey? Other barons? Not very seemly.
In play now is the question of whether our bull or base case for the Nasdaq - and with that the same question for the S&P - is correct. Our focus here is very keenly on whether the Wave 5 termination zones in the S&P and Nasdaq charts we've pointed to for some months do in fact see a termination there. If yes? Look out below in 2024 (it will be worse than 2022 if we hit larger-degree Wave 5 highs in the near future). If no? Then there's a good chance we're in larger-degree Wave 3 up and if that's true then this present fierce bull market may continue for a lot longer than anyone thinks. We'll be real-time focused on this stuff in Slack chat and these notes in the service.
Below we lay out our take on each of the indices.
Let's Get To Work
Note - to open full-page versions of these charts, just click on the chart headings, which are hyperlinks.
US 10-Year Yield
